Outs and Drawing Probability
An out is an unseen card that improves your hand and increases your chance of winning. Some outs are clean; others are dirty because they can also give an opponent a stronger hand. Do not automatically remove dirty outs, but recognize that they may be worth less than a full out. For exact one-card probability, compare your outs with the number of cards you have not seen: normally 47 on the flop and 46 on the turn.
What you will be able to do
- Count candidate outs without double-counting overlapping draws.
- Recognize the difference between clean and dirty outs.
- Compute one-card probability as outs divided by unseen cards, then consider whether every out is fully clean.
FIND THE CARDS THAT HELP
An out is an unseen card that improves your chance of winning
But improving your hand category is not enough. A card that can make Villain an even stronger hand may not be a fully clean out.
Any four or nine completes a straight: eight apparent outs.
Select an out to see why all eight should not automatically receive equal weight.They complete your straight without completing the visible heart draw. They are relatively clean candidates, subject to Villain’s actual range.
A DIRTY-OUT EXAMPLE
Hero makes a straight—and Villain makes a flush
improves Hero, but loses against this holding. Villain will not always have two hearts, so we do not automatically erase . We discount them according to how often Villain’s range contains a flush draw.
ONE THING TO REMEMBER
A card that improves your hand category is not automatically a clean out; it must also leave you likely to win.
TRY IT
This is a 2-question test. Start when you are ready.