Value Bets and Bluffs
Before betting, decide what the bet is intended to accomplish using the information available. A value bet expects enough worse hands to call. A bluff expects enough better hands to fold. If neither expectation is credible, checking may earn more EV.
What you will be able to do
- Distinguish clear value from thin value by naming worse calls.
- Choose bluffs that block strong continues without blocking likely folds.
- Recognize missed hands that are better used as give-ups.
RIVER DECISION LAB
Decide what the bet is trying to accomplish
BB checks to Hero on the BTN. Pot: 20 BB. Hero can bet 15 BB or check. Use the action so far to estimate Villain’s range, then decide before betting whether the hand targets worse calls, better folds, or should simply give up.
Using the information available, which part of Villain’s range is the 15 BB bet targeting?
Target calls from worse made hands
Hero has the nuts. If we can expect calls from the lower straight T7, sets, two pair and strong one-pair hands, betting 15 BB is clearly for value.
ONE THING TO REMEMBER
Do not begin with “Is my hand strong?” Begin with the available evidence: what range can Villain have, which worse hands are likely to call, and which better hands are likely to fold?
TRY IT
This is a 2-question test. Start when you are ready.
Takeaway
Value bets profit from enough worse calls. Bluffs profit from enough better folds.